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[h=1]Week 17 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Eli Manning, Chris Johnson and Antonio Gates look like good starts
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders[/h]Hope everyone is having a happy and safe holiday season. If you're reading this column, that means you have fantasy football decisions to make in Week 17. Before discussing featured matchups, two general points:
1. It might be time to either replace your commissioner or find another league. No one should ever have their fantasy fortunes depend on players resting for next week's playoff game or tee time.
2. When in doubt, leave them out. If a team has nothing (or very little) to play for this week, don't take the risk of having its players in your lineup -- provided you have a viable alternative. And don't even bother trying to read the tea leaves because coaches lie about it all the time. On Sunday, those teams are the Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Broncos and Falcons. Also keep in mind that, if the Packers win their 1 p.m. game, then the 49ers and Seahawks won't be vying for a first-round bye in their 4:15 p.m. games. They will still be battling for the NFC West division title, but home games against relative cupcakes make early big leads -- and the starter exits that come with them -- more likely.
You won't see any players from those teams in the tables, and there's no "elite players" table because that designation becomes a bit laughable when so many are either not playing at all or not playing for very long. With that bit of clarification out of the way, here are the featured fantasy matchups for Week 17:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Eli Manning (plus-2 points)
Last season, the Giants needed a win at home over a division rival in Week 17 to make the playoffs. Manning went in with an average of 20.0 fantasy points per game, and scored 30.7 against the No. 20 pass defense according to DVOA. This season, the Giants need a win at home over a divisional rival in Week 17 to make the playoffs, Manning has a 16.1-point average and faces Football Outsiders' No. 26 pass defense.
<offer>Is this predictive of anything? No. Is it an interesting coincidence? It depends on whether you're a Giants fan or Manning owner. Nevertheless, more rigorous analysis suggests that a home game against a bad Eagles pass defense that gives up the fourth-most points to fantasy quarterbacks is a good matchup for almost any quarterback.
Matthew Stafford (minus-4 points)
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Seeing as how he's been featured in this column so often this season, and how we've been wrong almost every time, it's fitting that Stafford closes out the season by making our list in random Week 17. He'll probably score 42 points (as he did last season in a meaningless Week 17 game at Green Bay), but going against the Chicago Bears' No. 1 pass defense is clearly a bad matchup on paper.
[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (minus-3 points) and Lamar Miller (minus-1 point)
We hope you listened to our Bush recommendation last week and rode his 107-yard, three-touchdown game to your fantasy finals. Maybe in your 20-man roster, 14-team league, you even extrapolated our Bush recommendation into a start for Miller. If so, kudos to you. This week, though, the pair becomes the first tandem to win "Fall Back to Earth" player(s) of the week. The New England Patriots are playing at home for a much-needed bye, have the No. 6 run defense DVOA and allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Mikel Leshoure (minus-2 points) and Joique Bell (minus-1 point)
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
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<!-- end inline 2 -->In addition to having the No. 1 pass defense according to DVOA, Chicago also has the No. 1 run defense and allows the second-fewest points to opposing running backs. As Detroit's backs are involved in the ever-present passing game as much as they are in the running game, that's a double whammy of matchup adversity. To boot, much of Leshoure's fantasy scoring is tied to touchdowns, and the Bears have allowed opposing backs to reach the end zone seven times all season, which is tied for second-fewest in the league.
[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Danny Amendola (minus-1 point), Brandon Gibson (minus-1 point) and Chris Givens (minus-1 point)
On the positive side of the ledger, if superstar cover man Richard Sherman loses his appeal on Thursday, and Marcus Trufant can't shake his nagging hamstring injury, Seattle will be playing without its top three corners. On the negative side, this Rams trio is still on the road against a red-hot Seahawks team playing for a division title. In addition, since Brandon Browner's suspension, reserve cornerback Jeremy Lane has played well, while Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor continue their dominance at safety. In other words, it's unlikely that the Seahawks pass defense declines much from their No. 3 DVOA ranking and their No. 1 ranking in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Mike Williams (minus-1 point)
Here's a final 2012 case of a matchup in which the stats say one thing, but the story says another. Williams plays on the road against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that's ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA and seventh in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That's not a favorable matchup at all -- until we remember that the Falcons will almost certainly be treating it like a preseason game. The Falcons would benefit from rest more than the other teams with little or nothing to play for this week because, as we wrote for Insider a few weeks ago, they have fielded the oldest team in the league.
[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]Antonio Gates (plus-1 point)
Gates has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and now gets to face an Oakland Raiders pass defense that has surrendered the sixth-most tight end touchdowns. Furthermore, Oakland ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, 25th in DVOA on tight end targets and 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
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[h=1]Week 17 fantasy projections[/h][h=3]Eli Manning, Chris Johnson and Antonio Gates look like good starts
By Danny Tuccitto | Football Outsiders[/h]Hope everyone is having a happy and safe holiday season. If you're reading this column, that means you have fantasy football decisions to make in Week 17. Before discussing featured matchups, two general points:
1. It might be time to either replace your commissioner or find another league. No one should ever have their fantasy fortunes depend on players resting for next week's playoff game or tee time.
2. When in doubt, leave them out. If a team has nothing (or very little) to play for this week, don't take the risk of having its players in your lineup -- provided you have a viable alternative. And don't even bother trying to read the tea leaves because coaches lie about it all the time. On Sunday, those teams are the Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Broncos and Falcons. Also keep in mind that, if the Packers win their 1 p.m. game, then the 49ers and Seahawks won't be vying for a first-round bye in their 4:15 p.m. games. They will still be battling for the NFC West division title, but home games against relative cupcakes make early big leads -- and the starter exits that come with them -- more likely.
You won't see any players from those teams in the tables, and there's no "elite players" table because that designation becomes a bit laughable when so many are either not playing at all or not playing for very long. With that bit of clarification out of the way, here are the featured fantasy matchups for Week 17:
[h=3]Quarterbacks[/h]
Eli Manning (plus-2 points)
Last season, the Giants needed a win at home over a division rival in Week 17 to make the playoffs. Manning went in with an average of 20.0 fantasy points per game, and scored 30.7 against the No. 20 pass defense according to DVOA. This season, the Giants need a win at home over a divisional rival in Week 17 to make the playoffs, Manning has a 16.1-point average and faces Football Outsiders' No. 26 pass defense.
<offer>Is this predictive of anything? No. Is it an interesting coincidence? It depends on whether you're a Giants fan or Manning owner. Nevertheless, more rigorous analysis suggests that a home game against a bad Eagles pass defense that gives up the fourth-most points to fantasy quarterbacks is a good matchup for almost any quarterback.
Matthew Stafford (minus-4 points)
<!-- begin inline 1 --> [h=4]Players With Favorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | SD | Philip Rivers | +4 |
| QB | TEN | Jake Locker | +4 |
| RB | TEN | Chris Johnson | +3 |
| RB | NYJ | Shonn Greene | +2 |
| QB | NYG | Eli Manning | +2 |
| RB | SD | Jackie Battle | +1 |
| RB | SD | Ronnie Brown | +1 |
| RB | CAR | Jonathan Stewart | +1 |
| RB | CAR | DeAngelo Williams | +1 |
| TE | SD | Antonio Gates | +1 |
| TE | NYG | Martellus Bennett | +1 |
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<!-- end inline 1 -->Seeing as how he's been featured in this column so often this season, and how we've been wrong almost every time, it's fitting that Stafford closes out the season by making our list in random Week 17. He'll probably score 42 points (as he did last season in a meaningless Week 17 game at Green Bay), but going against the Chicago Bears' No. 1 pass defense is clearly a bad matchup on paper.
[h=3]Running Backs[/h]
Reggie Bush (minus-3 points) and Lamar Miller (minus-1 point)
We hope you listened to our Bush recommendation last week and rode his 107-yard, three-touchdown game to your fantasy finals. Maybe in your 20-man roster, 14-team league, you even extrapolated our Bush recommendation into a start for Miller. If so, kudos to you. This week, though, the pair becomes the first tandem to win "Fall Back to Earth" player(s) of the week. The New England Patriots are playing at home for a much-needed bye, have the No. 6 run defense DVOA and allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Mikel Leshoure (minus-2 points) and Joique Bell (minus-1 point)
<!-- begin inline 2 --> [h=4]Players With Unfavorable Matchups[/h]Based on defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). For the methodology, click here.
| Pos | Team | Name | +/- Fan. Pts. |
| QB | STL | Sam Bradford | -4 |
| QB | DET | Matthew Stafford | -4 |
| RB | MIA | Reggie Bush | -3 |
| QB | TB | Josh Freeman | -2 |
| QB | MIN | Christian Ponder | -2 |
| RB | ARI | Beanie Wells | -2 |
| RB | DET | Mikel Leshoure | -2 |
| RB | OAK | Darren McFadden | -2 |
| RB | DET | Joique Bell | -1 |
| RB | MIA | Lamar Miller | -1 |
| QB | ARI | Brian Hoyer | -1 |
| WR | STL | Danny Amendola | -1 |
| WR | ARI | Andre Roberts | -1 |
| WR | ARI | Larry Fitzgerald | -1 |
| WR | STL | Brandon Gibson | -1 |
| WR | STL | Chris Givens | -1 |
| WR | TB | Mike Williams | -1 |
| TE | STL | Lance Kendricks | -1 |
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<!-- end inline 2 -->In addition to having the No. 1 pass defense according to DVOA, Chicago also has the No. 1 run defense and allows the second-fewest points to opposing running backs. As Detroit's backs are involved in the ever-present passing game as much as they are in the running game, that's a double whammy of matchup adversity. To boot, much of Leshoure's fantasy scoring is tied to touchdowns, and the Bears have allowed opposing backs to reach the end zone seven times all season, which is tied for second-fewest in the league.
[h=3]Wide Receivers[/h]
Danny Amendola (minus-1 point), Brandon Gibson (minus-1 point) and Chris Givens (minus-1 point)
On the positive side of the ledger, if superstar cover man Richard Sherman loses his appeal on Thursday, and Marcus Trufant can't shake his nagging hamstring injury, Seattle will be playing without its top three corners. On the negative side, this Rams trio is still on the road against a red-hot Seahawks team playing for a division title. In addition, since Brandon Browner's suspension, reserve cornerback Jeremy Lane has played well, while Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor continue their dominance at safety. In other words, it's unlikely that the Seahawks pass defense declines much from their No. 3 DVOA ranking and their No. 1 ranking in fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers.
Mike Williams (minus-1 point)
Here's a final 2012 case of a matchup in which the stats say one thing, but the story says another. Williams plays on the road against an Atlanta Falcons pass defense that's ranked 10th in pass defense DVOA and seventh in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. That's not a favorable matchup at all -- until we remember that the Falcons will almost certainly be treating it like a preseason game. The Falcons would benefit from rest more than the other teams with little or nothing to play for this week because, as we wrote for Insider a few weeks ago, they have fielded the oldest team in the league.
[h=3]Tight Ends[/h]Antonio Gates (plus-1 point)
Gates has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and now gets to face an Oakland Raiders pass defense that has surrendered the sixth-most tight end touchdowns. Furthermore, Oakland ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA, 25th in DVOA on tight end targets and 25th in fantasy points allowed to the position.
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